In an article called A Future Without War? It's More Likely than You Think published by TIME, it's reported that a group of researchers in Norway predict the trend towards peace to continue in the future.
"In a paper soon to be published in International Studies Quarterly, Håvard Hegre, a professor of political science at the University of Oslo, claims that the number of ongoing conflicts will be halved by 2050 - with the greatest decrease coming in the Middle East."Hegre and his colleagues at the Peace Research Institute Oslo put together a model that they ran in the conflict stimulation program 18,000 times before stating a conclusion. The model included youth population, education, infant mortality, ethnic make-up and conflict history. While the results showed us moving towards peace, it isn't all good news.
"Between now and 2017, India, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Uganda and Burma will all be at greatest risk of internal conflict. By 2050 that list will narrow down to India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania."Conclusions also showed that all continents should expect a decline in the risk of conflict other than sub-Saharan Africa. All that's missing from the study is consideration of existing political conditions within a country.
While the optimism of this article is exciting, I'm not sure that I really believe it. When I turn on the news or pick up the paper and learn about all of the disaster and strife going on in the world, I'm overcome by pessimism. It doesn't seem to me that we're heading towards peace, but I guess that's because I haven't lived through a time any worse than the one we're currently going through.
I suppose I'll just have to wait to 2050 to see if Hegre and his colleagues are right.
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